Yes, it was a graveyard even before game start.

I got Denver moneyline +150 on Diamond at the afternoon. It was clearly a +EV bet, so, instead of placing my usual 1 unit bet, I took it for 10x, planning to hedge a part of it on matchbook close to gametime and letting ride 2 units or so, depending on the price I get in MB.

Well, I offered Denver +140 all the day (meaning Jazz -140 for me), and no one matched one cent. The best offer offer the other side was Jazz -149, even worse than pinny (-150) after commission....

Well, I also lost a bunch on the Celtics. The line offered in the SBR book was stale for a few hours on the morning. The moneyline was -170/+150, when most other places had it at -190/+170 or so. So, it was not arbable, but a very good value. The spread was also 1 point off (3.5 instead of 4.5).

I placed a max bet on the Celtics moneyline, so I lost 3400 points. It capped an awful day for me, with a loss of -5821. Max bet moneyline losses on many faves, most of them unlucky: E KY (op...

I have been thinking about the best "basic strategy" for an action points contest. In contests with lots of players and not too many picks, taking a high variability approach is the best strategy. It increases the chance for a very high score (ie prize) at the cost of increasing the probability of a very low score.

So, looks like taking basketball totals is a no brainer. But I have 3 assumptions that would like to be confirmed:

1.- NBA totals have a higher variability (ie average action points) than NCAABB, as the totals are in the 200 zone, compared with 130s...

Which is the best way to use the Betonline promo? It lets you pick any NFL game spread, moneyline or total. At the halftime it allows you to surrender it for a freeplay of half the bet. So, if the bet losses you salvage some value; if the original bet wins it still pays, but the promo is spent.

So, the best bet should be one that is already decided at the halftime. My first idea is picking a low over (say Chi-Car O33), if it is 27+ points at the half you could confidently surrender it. Another idea is a...

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